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Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology ECON1246

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MACROECONOMICS 1 (ECON1246 ECON1273)

Assessment 2

Submit online at the ‘Assignment’ folder in Canvas by: Friday 2 October at 6 PM

The Task

An individual assignment that will cover the performance of the economies of Australia and China in recent years with a focus on Australia. It will include the impact of COVID_19 on the Chinese economy in 2020 and the impact this may have on the Australian economy.

You are to complete it in a report format.

It will assess the following topics and learning outcomes 1 to 8.

  • GDP and the business cycle – Topic 3
  • Aggregate Demand / Aggregate Supply – The Product Market – Topic 4
  • Inflation – Topic 5
  • Unemployment and the Labour Force – Topic 6
  • Exchange rate market – Topic 7

Your Report is to take the following format

  1. Contents page
  2. Part A Introduction

The economy of Australia and China and the business cycle.

  1. PART B Unemployment and Inflation in Australia in 2019.
  2. PART C China’s economy in 2020 post COVID_19.
  3. Part D: Analysis and conclusion – the impact of economic growth of the Chinese economy on the economy of Australia.
  4. PART E Formatting including a contents page, referencing, bibliography and footnotes.
  5. PART F Evidence of completion of microcredential (Academic Integrity Awareness)

Instructions

This assessment contributes 40% of the overall marks for the course.

Only a single attempt of submission is permitted. Please ensure to attach the final version of the assessment.

  • Attach your report to the Assessment cover page.  Do not write the questions or attach this page to your submission.  The cover sheet is in the Assignment folder.  Submit using either word or PDF format.  The font size has to be at least 11.
  • Explain your answers, but be succinct (brief and relevant). Label each axis and explain the diagram that you use carefully. Show all of your working in order to get partial credits.
  • After the due date any late submission will be marked as ‘late’. A penalty of 10% of the allocated marks (i.e., 2 marks) per day will apply for late submissions.
  • Referencing and Acknowledgement of sources.

Students are required to acknowledge all sources of information and to include a contents page and bibliography of cited texts.

For guidelines on referencing, see a document on Canvas (Assignments | Assessment Task 2: titled, “Guidelines for Referencing.”

Note that material and answers that are not acknowledged or correctly referenced will not be considered for assessment. Use footnotes where you have referred to RMIT notes and or articles listed below or other written material.

Completion of Micro-credential

The assessment will require you to add evidence of the completion of the RMIT micro-credential (Academic Integrity Awareness) which is designed to increase your understanding of academic integrity in assessment practices by:

  1. Acknowledging that the RMIT community has expectations around academic integrity.
  2. Identify appropriate referencing techniques.

Data / fact sheets and notes related to the assignment. These are available in Assignment folder, Assessment 2.

The following links are required for Parts C and D.

The Report

Part A Australian and Chinese business cycle.

Examine the data relating to the economies of Australia and China and answer Parts A to B.

  1. Complete the table / data sheet below for both Australia and China and include this as an attachment to your report. Answers must be accurate to two decimal places. This is taken from the complete data sheet that is available on canvas.

The Australian economy: Economic data 2016 - 2019.

Indicator

2016

2017

2018

2019

Nominal Gross Domestic Product (A$ billions)

1,703.6

1,808.9

1,897.7

1,990.3

GDP deflator

95.86

99.26

101.44

104.58

Calculate RGDP (for 2016 to 2019)

% change in RGDP (for 2017 to 2019)

Inflation rate (%) for 2017 to 2019 – use GDP deflator

The Chinese economy: Economic data 2016 - 2019.

Indicator

2016

2017

2018

2019

Nominal Gross Domestic Product (RMB billions)

74,358

82,712

89,425

98,115

GDP deflator

101.15

105.35

106.85

110.35

Calculate RGDP (for 2016 to 2019)

% change in RGDP (for 2017 to 2019)

Inflation rate (%) for 2017 to 2019 – use GDP deflator

  1. What phase of the business cycle was the Australian economy in over the period 2018 to 2019? Briefly explain.

What contribution did the following components of Aggregate Demand; Consumption spending, Investment spending and Net exports make to the cycle over this period?

  1. What phase of the business cycle was the Chinese economy in over the period 2018 to 2019? Briefly explain.

What contribution did the following components of Aggregate Demand; Consumption spending, Investment spending and Net exports make to the cycle over this period?

(2 + 3 + 3 = 8 marks)

Part B Unemployment and Inflation and its causes for Australia.

  1. Explain the likely cause of the change in the unemployment rate in 2019?

In your answer:

  • refer to both cyclical and non-cyclical types of unemployment;
  • make reference to the RBA extract “Statement on monetary policy” Feb 2020 p32-33 on employment growth, available on canvas.
  1. Using the GDP Deflator identify and explain the likely cause of inflation / deflation for Australia in 2019? Include in your answer the contribution that export and import prices made to inflation / deflation in 2019.

(5+ 5 = 10 marks)

Part C China’s economy in 2020: Impact of COVID-19.

This part of your report is a summary and analysis of China’s economy in the first quarter to 5 months of 2020 for which data is available. Assume this is intended for a firm with strong economic links to the Chinese economy requiring analysis on the impact of COVID-19 on the Chinese economy.

You are required to

  1. Complete the data sheet below (data required are indicated by X). Refer to the http links for the data. Use this data where appropriate in your responses below.

Part C

China: Economic data 2020

Indicator

Jan 2020

March / or 1st Quarter 2020

April 2020

May 2020

June / or 2nd Quarter 2020

GDP growth (% change in RGDP – annual, yoy)

X

X

Index of Consumer confidence

126.4

116.4

X

X

% change in Manufacturing production

- 15.7

-1.8

+ 5.0%

X

X

Exports of goods in US$ billion

238.64 – Dec 2019

185.13

X

Imports of goods in US$ billion

191.39 - Dec 2019

165.07

X

Net Exports of goods & services (Current A/C) in US$ billion

40.53 4th Qtr 2019

-33.7 (Qtr)

X (Qtr)

Unemployment rate (%)

5.3

6.0

X

X

Inflation rate (%) - CPI

5.4

3.30

X

X

Change in Producer prices (%)

0.1

-3.1

X

X

Index of import prices

97.9

(Dec 2019)

94.4

X

X

Exchange rate (RMB per USD)

6.95

7.02

31st May

X

30th June

  1. Identify the business cycle for China in the first TWO quarters of 2020. In your answer also indicate the impact of the following on the business cycle and indicate which made the greatest contribution:
  • consumer confidence / sentiment;
  • manufacturing output;
  • net exports.
  1. What was the change to the unemployment rate and what type of unemployment was most likely to have changed?
  1. What was the change to the inflation rate and what type of inflation was most likely to change? (Note: use the CPI for this question as reliable data exists).

(3 + 2 + 2 + 2 = 9 marks)

Part D: Analysis and conclusion. The impact of economic growth of the Chinese economy

on the economy of Australia.

Trading Economics and DFAT indicate that China comprises 36% of Australian exports of goods and services - Australian biggest export market.

  1. Referring to your responses to Part C, what is the likely impact on Australia’s Real GDP, unemployment and exchange rate of the performance of the Chinese economy in the first half of 2020? Briefly explain.
  1. Complete the data sheet below (data required are indicated by X). Does the data support your conclusions? Refer to the latest data for Australia.

Australia: Economic data 2020

Indicator

Jan 2020

March / or 1st Quarter 2020

April 2020

May 2020

June / or 2nd Quarter 2020

GDP growth (% change in RGDP – annual, yoy)

X

X

GDP growth (% change from previous qtr)

X

X

Exports of goods (A$ billion)

39.19

42.08

37.48

X

X

Imports of goods (A$ billion)

34.52

31.45

29.61

X

X

Net Exports of goods & services (Current A/C) (A$billion)

8.40

X

Unemployment rate (%)

5.3

5.2

6.4

X

X

Inflation rate – GDP deflator

104.58

105.72

X

Exchange rate (USD per AUD

.704

0.58

– 20th Mar

0.65

- 31st May

X

30th June

Note: Exports, imports and net exports are in hundreds of millions e.g. $4208 = $42,080,000,000 or $42.08 billion. You are advised to refer to the summary at top of the data page for ‘clarification’.

  1. What explanation (identity and explain two factors) can be given for the change to the AUD (Australian dollar) relative to the USD since its low of 0.58 USD in February?

(2 + 4 + 2 = 8 marks)

PART E

Formatting including a contents page, referencing, bibliography and footnotes. (2 marks)

PART F Completion of Micro-credential

Attach evidence of the completion of the RMIT micro-credential (Academic Integrity Awareness) which is designed to increase your understanding of academic integrity in assessment practices by

  1. Acknowledging that the RMIT community has expectations around academic integrity.
  2. Identify appropriate referencing techniques.

(3 marks)

Word limits:

PART A 100 x 2 = 200 words

PART B 100 x 2 = 200 words

PART C 100 x 3 = 300 words

PART D 200 words

Note: the above limits are recommended word limits. Your answers should be relevant and within the word limit. Note: Long and irrelevant, internet-based answers will not be given credit.

Suggested time lines / completion dates

Part A – 28 August

Part B – 11 September

Part C – 18 September

Part E Microcredential – 25 September

Part D – 30 September

Due date 2 October

Course Learning Outcomes

  1. Describe the operation of the Australian economy to apply in various contemporary macroeconomic issues.
  2. Read and critically evaluate current economic news articles as they relate to the Macroeconomy.
  3. Assess how government policies and changing macroeconomic conditions affect societal welfare.
  4. Demonstrate an understanding of recent economic events and their impact on current policy initiatives on the Australian economy.
  5. Interpret charts, graphs, and tables and use the information to make informed judgments.
  6. Work and learn independently and work as a team.
  7. Communicate macroeconomics concepts and issues effective in a variety of business contexts.
  8. Evaluate business outcomes based on the costs and benefits involved.
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