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麦考瑞大学BUSA3015 Business Forecasting 期末考试代考

麦考瑞大学BUSA3015 Business Forecasting 期末考试代考

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FAMILY NAME:………….....……………………………………….
OTHER NAMES:……..…….…………………..…………………...
STUDENT NUMBER:…..…….………..…………………………...
By signing below, I am certifying that:
• My calculator complies with the conditions specified below.
• I will only use a mobile phone, if needed, to scan and upload this cover sheet and my answers to this exam after I have
finished writing.
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• I have not communicated in any way with any other person throughout the time when I completed this exam.
• Macquarie University operates under a ‘Fit to Sit’ model. This means that, in sitting this examination, I am declaring that I
am fit to do so. It is my responsibility to determine whether I am fit to sit this examination. Therefore, if I am feeling unfit
to sit this examination, I will not do so.
• WARNING: A false declaration can lead to you being awarded zero marks for the unit and being referred to the Discipline
Committee where penalties can be very harsh including expulsion from the University.
Signature: …………………………………………………
FORMAL EXAMINATION PERIOD: SESSION 2, NOVEMBER 2020

Unit Code and Unit Name:BUSA3015 Business Forecasting
Duration of Exam
(including reading time if applicable):
2 hours plus ten minutes reading time, plus 60 minutes for technical issues
including accessing, printing, and uploading your examination answers.
Exam Date and Start Time:Friday 20 November 2020 starting at 3:00 pm (Sydney time)
Questions and Pages:This exam has 2 Sections and includes 9 pages (including this cover sheet)
GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS TO STUDENTS:
• These instructions should be read in conjunction with information relating to accessing your exam, scanning and uploading your answers
provided on the iLearn page for this unit.
• Students must access the exam on the iLearn page for this unit on the Exam Date and at the Start Time specified above. By downloading the
exam paper you are declaring that you are fit to sit this examination.
• Students must spend the first ten minutes of the exam reading the exam questions. You are NOT permitted to write during this time.
• Students must use the remaining time to answer the Section A by calculating the answers and inputting this using an iLearn quiz tool, and typing
the answers to Section B into a DOC file or similar and converting it into a PDF for submission via a Turn-It-In link on iLearn.
• If, and only if, you are unable to upload your answers to the iLearn page, you should send it by email to prashan.karunaratne@mq.edu.au before
the exam time ends. Include your full name and student ID in this email.
• You must begin the exam at the given start time. The exam will close 3 hours and 10 minutes after the start time and submissions will not be
accepted after this time except for cases where an application for special consideration is made and approved. If you commence the exam after
the given start time you will have less time to complete it as the exam will close 3 hours and 10 minutes (i.e. 6:10 pm) after the start time
specified above.
• You may only attempt this exam once.
• Please ensure that you have checked your internet connectivity prior to the start time for this exam. You are advised to print or download the pdf
file which contains the exam questions at the commencement of the exam.
• Students may only access authorised materials during this examination. A list of authorised material is available on this cover sheet.
• If it is alleged you have breached these rules at any time during the examination, the matter may be reported to a University Discipline Committee
for determination.
EXAMINATION INSTRUCTIONS:
There are two sections to this examination, Sections A and B. Section A is worth 45 marks, and Section B is worth 15 marks.
The marks total to 60 – this exam is worth 50% of your overall assessment in BUSA3015.
Submission instructions are at the beginning of each section.
 The answers to Section A are to be submitted by typing your answers using an iLearn Quiz Tool – just as you did for
Exercises 1 & 2 of Report 1 & Report 2.
 The answers to Section B are to be typed into a PDF and submitted using a Turn-It-In Submission Link in iLearn – just as
you did for Exercise 3 of Report 1 & Report 2.
If students experience a personal, illness, technical or logistical difficulty whilst sitting an exam they can contact the Exams
Support Hotline on 1800 MQ EXAM (1800 67 39 26) or International +61 2 9850 2700.
AIDS AND MATERIALS PERMITTED/NOT PERMITTED:
Non-programmable calculators permitted. Calculations may not be performed using a computer or any other device.
This is an open book exam. You may refer to notes and other printed resources. A Formulae Sheet isprovided.
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Formulas
Naïve model
Ft = Yt-1
MA(q)
Ft = (1/q) {Yt-1+Yt-2+Yt-3…+Yt-q}
SES (α)
Ft = α* Y t-1 + (1-α) * F t-1
ARRSES
Ft = αt Yt-1 + (1 - αt) Ft-1
αt = |St/At|
St = β * et + (1 - β) * St-1 (Smoothed Error)
At = β * |et| + (1 - β) * At-1 (Absolute Smoothed Error)
et = Yt - Ft
Holt’s Exponential Smoothing
Lt = αYt + (1 - α) (Lt-1 + Tt-1)
Tt = β(Lt - Lt-1) + (1 - β)(Tt-1)
Ft+m = Lt + mTt
Trend-fitting
Yt = a + b * t
Winters Exponential Smoothing
(Additive)
Lt = α(Yt - St-s) + (1 - α)(Lt-1 + Tt-1)
Tt = β(Lt - Lt-1) + (1 - β)(Tt-1)
St = γ(Yt - Lt) + (1 - γ)(St-s)
Ft+p = Lt +Ttp + St+p-s
Winters Exponential Smoothing
(Multiplicative)
Lt = α(Yt / St-s) + (1 - α)(Lt-1 + Tt-1)
Tt = β(Lt - Lt-1) + (1 - β)(Tt-1)
St = γ(Yt / Lt) + (1 - γ)(St-s)
Ft+p = (Lt +Ttp) x St+p-s
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Section A (45 marks – 15 marks for each of 3 models)
You have been allocated Version p3yB4-A2 of this exam paper.
Answer all questions. Report numerical answers to 2 decimal places.
Just as you have for Exercises 1 & 2 of Report 1 & Report 2, you are to submit your
answers for Section A via an iLearn Quiz Tool where you will type your answers for
each question, rounded to two decimal places.
For the purposes of Section A – ignore the impact of COVID-19 and the pandemic. The
impact of COVID-19 will be examined in Section B.
Consider today to be the 2nd of April 2020. You are working for an Australian-based Singaporean tour
company (in Australia) that specialises in catering for tourist arrivals from Singapore. The latest monthly ABS
(Australian Bureau of Statistics) data that is available to you only goes up to March 2020 as per the figure
below. You are attempting to forecast tourist arrivals from Singapore to Australia for each month from April
2020 to March 2021.
Over the next few pages, you will see three models that have been utilised to forecast these tourist arrivals.
After each model you will see a series of questions that you must answer.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Apr-2016
May-2016
Jun-2016
Jul-2016
Aug-2016
Sep-2016
Oct-2016
Nov-2016
Dec-2016
Jan-2017
Feb-2017
Mar-2017
Apr-2017
May-2017
Jun-2017
Jul-2017
Aug-2017
Sep-2017
Oct-2017
Nov-2017
Dec-2017
Jan-2018
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2018
May-2018
Jun-2018
Jul-2018
Aug-2018
Sep-2018
Oct-2018
Nov-2018
Dec-2018
Jan-2019
Feb-2019
Mar-2019
Apr-2019
May-2019
Jun-2019
Jul-2019
Aug-2019
Sep-2019
Oct-2019
Nov-2019
Dec-2019
Jan-2020
Feb-2020
Mar-2020
Arrivals from Singapore
Arrivals (persons)
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Model 1 (Winter’s) – Top section of the spreadsheet
Model 1 (Winter’s) – Bottom section of the spreadsheet appears
on the next page.
Note that rows of the spreadsheet relating to April 2018 through
until February 2019 have not been shown.
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Questions regarding Model 1 – Round answers to 2 decimal places (1 mark each)
1. What is the value of A?
2. What is the value of B?
3. What is the value of C?
4. What is the value of D?
5. What is the value of E?
Questions regarding Model 1 – Round answers to 2 decimal places (2 mark each)
6. What is the value of F?
7. What is the value of G?
8. What is the value of H?
9. What is the value of I?
10. What is the value of J?
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Model 2 (Decomposition) – Top section of the spreadsheet
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Questions regarding Model 2 – Round answers to 2 decimal places (1 mark each)
11. What is the value of K?
12. What is the value of L?
13. What is the value of M?
14. What is the value of N?
15. What is the value of O?
Questions regarding Model 2 – Round answers to 2 decimal places (2 marks each)
16. What is the value of P?
17. What is the value of Q?
18. What is the value of R?
19. What is the value of S?
20. What is the value of T?
Please turn over for Model 3
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Model 3 – Regression Output with Arrivals as the Response (Y)
Questions regarding Model 3 – Round answers to 2 decimal places (1 mark each)
21. What is the value of U?
22. What is the value of V?
23. What is the value of W?
24. What is the value of X?
25. What is the value of Y?
Questions regarding Model 3 – Round answers to 2 decimal places (2 marks each)
26. What is the value of Z?
27. What is the within-sample forecast for October 2019?
28. What is the within-sample forecast for March 2020?
29. What is the out-of-sample forecast for April 2020?
30. What is the out-of-sample forecast for November 2020?
9 | P a g e
Section B (15 marks)
Answer all questions by typing into a DOC file or similar.
When you are finished, convert your file into a PDF.
Just as you have for Exercise 3 of Report 1 & Report 2, you are to submit your answers
for Section B via a PDF submission through a Turn-It-In link on iLearn.
Now, consider today to be the 20th of November 2020. For the purposes of Section B –
you should consider the impact of COVID-19.
Question B.1 (5 marks) – Begin a new page
Compare and contrast Leading Indicators with Lagged Indicators. Discuss the usefulness (or not) of these
indicators for the out-of-sample forecasting in the specific business case presented in Section A, especially
taking the impact of COVID-19 into account.
Question B.2 (5 marks) – Begin a new page
Compare and contrast the Jury of Executive Opinion with the Sales Force Composite Method. In your
answer relate your responses to the out-of-sample forecasting in the specific business case presented in
Section A and refer to the impact of COVID-19.
Question B.3 (5 marks) – Begin a new page
Compare and contrast the Delphi Method with Scenario Analysis. In your answer relate your responses to
the out-of-sample forecasting in the specific business case presented in Section A and refer to the impact of
COVID-19.
END OF PAPER
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