FAMILY NAME:………….....……………………………………….

OTHER NAMES:……..…….…………………..…………………...

STUDENT NUMBER:…..…….………..…………………………...

By signing below, I am certifying that:

• My calculator complies with the conditions specified below.

• I will only use a mobile phone, if needed, to scan and upload this cover sheet and my answers to this exam after I have

finished writing.

• I am the person whose name I am signing.

• I have not communicated in any way with any other person throughout the time when I completed this exam.

• Macquarie University operates under a ‘Fit to Sit’ model. This means that, in sitting this examination, I am declaring that I

am fit to do so. It is my responsibility to determine whether I am fit to sit this examination. Therefore, if I am feeling unfit

to sit this examination, I will not do so.

• WARNING: A false declaration can lead to you being awarded zero marks for the unit and being referred to the Discipline

Committee where penalties can be very harsh including expulsion from the University.

Signature: …………………………………………………

FORMAL EXAMINATION PERIOD: SESSION 2, NOVEMBER 2020

Unit Code and Unit Name: | BUSA3015 Business Forecasting |

Duration of Exam (including reading time if applicable): | 2 hours plus ten minutes reading time, plus 60 minutes for technical issues including accessing, printing, and uploading your examination answers. |

Exam Date and Start Time: | Friday 20 November 2020 starting at 3:00 pm (Sydney time) |

Questions and Pages: | This exam has 2 Sections and includes 9 pages (including this cover sheet) |

GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS TO STUDENTS: • These instructions should be read in conjunction with information relating to accessing your exam, scanning and uploading your answers provided on the iLearn page for this unit. • Students must access the exam on the iLearn page for this unit on the Exam Date and at the Start Time specified above. By downloading the exam paper you are declaring that you are fit to sit this examination. • Students must spend the first ten minutes of the exam reading the exam questions. You are NOT permitted to write during this time. • Students must use the remaining time to answer the Section A by calculating the answers and inputting this using an iLearn quiz tool, and typing the answers to Section B into a DOC file or similar and converting it into a PDF for submission via a Turn-It-In link on iLearn. • If, and only if, you are unable to upload your answers to the iLearn page, you should send it by email to prashan.karunaratne@mq.edu.au before the exam time ends. Include your full name and student ID in this email. • You must begin the exam at the given start time. The exam will close 3 hours and 10 minutes after the start time and submissions will not be accepted after this time except for cases where an application for special consideration is made and approved. If you commence the exam after the given start time you will have less time to complete it as the exam will close 3 hours and 10 minutes (i.e. 6:10 pm) after the start time specified above. • You may only attempt this exam once. • Please ensure that you have checked your internet connectivity prior to the start time for this exam. You are advised to print or download the pdf file which contains the exam questions at the commencement of the exam. • Students may only access authorised materials during this examination. A list of authorised material is available on this cover sheet. • If it is alleged you have breached these rules at any time during the examination, the matter may be reported to a University Discipline Committee for determination. |

There are two sections to this examination, Sections A and B. Section A is worth 45 marks, and Section B is worth 15 marks.

The marks total to 60 – this exam is worth 50% of your overall assessment in BUSA3015.

Submission instructions are at the beginning of each section.

The answers to Section A are to be submitted by typing your answers using an iLearn Quiz Tool – just as you did for

Exercises 1 & 2 of Report 1 & Report 2.

The answers to Section B are to be typed into a PDF and submitted using a Turn-It-In Submission Link in iLearn – just as

you did for Exercise 3 of Report 1 & Report 2.

If students experience a personal, illness, technical or logistical difficulty whilst sitting an exam they can contact the Exams

Support Hotline on 1800 MQ EXAM (1800 67 39 26) or International +61 2 9850 2700.

AIDS AND MATERIALS PERMITTED/NOT PERMITTED:

Non-programmable calculators permitted. Calculations may not be performed using a computer or any other device.

This is an open book exam. You may refer to notes and other printed resources. A Formulae Sheet isprovided.

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Formulas

Naïve model

Ft = Yt-1

MA(q)

Ft = (1/q) {Yt-1+Yt-2+Yt-3…+Yt-q}

SES (α)

Ft = α* Y t-1 + (1-α) * F t-1

ARRSES

Ft = αt Yt-1 + (1 - αt) Ft-1

αt = |St/At|

St = β * et + (1 - β) * St-1 (Smoothed Error)

At = β * |et| + (1 - β) * At-1 (Absolute Smoothed Error)

et = Yt - Ft

Holt’s Exponential Smoothing

Lt = αYt + (1 - α) (Lt-1 + Tt-1)

Tt = β(Lt - Lt-1) + (1 - β)(Tt-1)

Ft+m = Lt + mTt

Trend-fitting

Yt = a + b * t

Winters Exponential Smoothing

(Additive)

Lt = α(Yt - St-s) + (1 - α)(Lt-1 + Tt-1)

Tt = β(Lt - Lt-1) + (1 - β)(Tt-1)

St = γ(Yt - Lt) + (1 - γ)(St-s)

Ft+p = Lt +Ttp + St+p-s

Winters Exponential Smoothing

(Multiplicative)

Lt = α(Yt / St-s) + (1 - α)(Lt-1 + Tt-1)

Tt = β(Lt - Lt-1) + (1 - β)(Tt-1)

St = γ(Yt / Lt) + (1 - γ)(St-s)

Ft+p = (Lt +Ttp) x St+p-s

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Section A (45 marks – 15 marks for each of 3 models)

You have been allocated Version p3yB4-A2 of this exam paper.

Answer all questions. Report numerical answers to 2 decimal places.

Just as you have for Exercises 1 & 2 of Report 1 & Report 2, you are to submit your

answers for Section A via an iLearn Quiz Tool where you will type your answers for

each question, rounded to two decimal places.

For the purposes of Section A – ignore the impact of COVID-19 and the pandemic. The

impact of COVID-19 will be examined in Section B.

Consider today to be the 2nd of April 2020. You are working for an Australian-based Singaporean tour

company (in Australia) that specialises in catering for tourist arrivals from Singapore. The latest monthly ABS

(Australian Bureau of Statistics) data that is available to you only goes up to March 2020 as per the figure

below. You are attempting to forecast tourist arrivals from Singapore to Australia for each month from April

2020 to March 2021.

Over the next few pages, you will see three models that have been utilised to forecast these tourist arrivals.

After each model you will see a series of questions that you must answer.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Apr-2016

May-2016

Jun-2016

Jul-2016

Aug-2016

Sep-2016

Oct-2016

Nov-2016

Dec-2016

Jan-2017

Feb-2017

Mar-2017

Apr-2017

May-2017

Jun-2017

Jul-2017

Aug-2017

Sep-2017

Oct-2017

Nov-2017

Dec-2017

Jan-2018

Feb-2018

Mar-2018

Apr-2018

May-2018

Jun-2018

Jul-2018

Aug-2018

Sep-2018

Oct-2018

Nov-2018

Dec-2018

Jan-2019

Feb-2019

Mar-2019

Apr-2019

May-2019

Jun-2019

Jul-2019

Aug-2019

Sep-2019

Oct-2019

Nov-2019

Dec-2019

Jan-2020

Feb-2020

Mar-2020

Arrivals from Singapore

Arrivals (persons)

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Model 1 (Winter’s) – Top section of the spreadsheet

Model 1 (Winter’s) – Bottom section of the spreadsheet appears

on the next page.

Note that rows of the spreadsheet relating to April 2018 through

until February 2019 have not been shown.

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Questions regarding Model 1 – Round answers to 2 decimal places (1 mark each)

1. What is the value of A?

2. What is the value of B?

3. What is the value of C?

4. What is the value of D?

5. What is the value of E?

Questions regarding Model 1 – Round answers to 2 decimal places (2 mark each)

6. What is the value of F?

7. What is the value of G?

8. What is the value of H?

9. What is the value of I?

10. What is the value of J?

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Model 2 (Decomposition) – Top section of the spreadsheet

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Questions regarding Model 2 – Round answers to 2 decimal places (1 mark each)

11. What is the value of K?

12. What is the value of L?

13. What is the value of M?

14. What is the value of N?

15. What is the value of O?

Questions regarding Model 2 – Round answers to 2 decimal places (2 marks each)

16. What is the value of P?

17. What is the value of Q?

18. What is the value of R?

19. What is the value of S?

20. What is the value of T?

Please turn over for Model 3

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Model 3 – Regression Output with Arrivals as the Response (Y)

Questions regarding Model 3 – Round answers to 2 decimal places (1 mark each)

21. What is the value of U?

22. What is the value of V?

23. What is the value of W?

24. What is the value of X?

25. What is the value of Y?

Questions regarding Model 3 – Round answers to 2 decimal places (2 marks each)

26. What is the value of Z?

27. What is the within-sample forecast for October 2019?

28. What is the within-sample forecast for March 2020?

29. What is the out-of-sample forecast for April 2020?

30. What is the out-of-sample forecast for November 2020?

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Section B (15 marks)

Answer all questions by typing into a DOC file or similar.

When you are finished, convert your file into a PDF.

Just as you have for Exercise 3 of Report 1 & Report 2, you are to submit your answers

for Section B via a PDF submission through a Turn-It-In link on iLearn.

Now, consider today to be the 20th of November 2020. For the purposes of Section B –

you should consider the impact of COVID-19.

Question B.1 (5 marks) – Begin a new page

Compare and contrast Leading Indicators with Lagged Indicators. Discuss the usefulness (or not) of these

indicators for the out-of-sample forecasting in the specific business case presented in Section A, especially

taking the impact of COVID-19 into account.

Question B.2 (5 marks) – Begin a new page

Compare and contrast the Jury of Executive Opinion with the Sales Force Composite Method. In your

answer relate your responses to the out-of-sample forecasting in the specific business case presented in

Section A and refer to the impact of COVID-19.

Question B.3 (5 marks) – Begin a new page

Compare and contrast the Delphi Method with Scenario Analysis. In your answer relate your responses to

the out-of-sample forecasting in the specific business case presented in Section A and refer to the impact of

COVID-19.

END OF PAPER

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